Real BTC daily candles, 2010-08-17 to present · halving-cycle timing theory

Halving-Cycle Strategy Replay

The full real BTC price history this backtest was computed over, on a log scale (price rose from $0.07 to six figures). Green means the theory's own 526/889-day rule called LONG at that real date; red means it called SHORT — decided purely from each halving's own calendar date, never from price. Halving dates, predicted tops/bottoms, and the REAL top/bottom that actually occurred are all marked, so the prediction can be compared against what really happened, cycle by cycle. Past the shaded "today" line, the same rule is projected forward through 2042 as a LONG/SHORT schedule only — no future price is shown or fabricated, since none is real.

Forward-outlook caveat: 2028 and 2032 halving dates are exact (hard-coded in the source theory's own module); 2036 and 2040 are this project's own extrapolation (flat 1,460-day spacing, the same interval as 2028→2032 — real historical spacing has actually varied: 1,319 / 1,402 / 1,440 days). The 526/889-day rule itself is validated against only 3 completed real cycles; projecting it 3–4 more cycles out compounds that uncertainty. Treat everything right of the "today" line as a schedule to watch, not a forecast to trust.