⌂ Research Index · tradebotsecrets research record · evidence-first, negatives included
Candle Road Replay — BTC Trading System

Real BTC 1h candles · the race car's feedback controller, on the real road this time

Candle Road Replay

Operator's own framing: the candle's real high and low ARE the road's boundary; the average of open and close is the road's center. Real 1h BTC candles this round (moved up from Daily's 689-candle pool, which had heavy window overlap during training) — 18,057 real training candles, a genuinely unseen 500-candle holdout tail never touched during training. The closed loop runs across the FULL 500-candle holdout for authentic dynamics; this replay shows the last 120 of them for legibility (the reported on-road fractions are still for the full 500). The primary (solid) line is the COMBINED controller: a real lookback window of past returns, a causal projection from the already-validated oscillator peak-decay model, and its own real tracking-error feedback. Toggle the dotted/dashed lines to compare against feedback-only and no-correction. Green means its own tracked price landed inside that candle's real range; red means it didn't.

Speed
Press Play or drag the scrubber to begin.
Real candle (high/low wick, open/close body) — the road
Combined car (lookback + oscillator prediction + feedback), inside the real range
Combined car, outside the real range
Feedback-only (no lookback/prediction)
No-correction baseline (zero-weight genome, never steers)

Holdout run

Last 120 of a 500 real 1h candle holdout, never sampled during training — on-road stats below are for the full 500.

Candles revealed
Real price (this candle)
Car's tracked price
Running on-road
Combined (lookback+prediction+feedback)
Feedback-only
No-correction baseline