⌂ Research Index · tradebotsecrets research record · evidence-first, negatives included
Holdout Timeline — Entry Primitives + DCA + Exit

BTC Daily · Genuinely unseen holdout · Real run output

Holdout Timeline — Entry Primitives + DCA + Exit

Price, leverage, and equity over the Daily holdout run, frame by frame — so it's visible exactly where the DCA ratchet climbed and where an exit (or a liquidation) happened, not just a final summary number. Mechanism: every fresh entry starts at the exchange floor leverage; while the position keeps confirming itself favorable, leverage ratchets toward the cluster's own fitted ceiling; once "armed" (≥1 confirmed add, or a damping-model breakout signal) it trails a 3-candle stop, otherwise it targets a take-profit anticipated from the real fitted volatility-damping cycle. See the Primitives Registry for the full write-up and prior (still negative) attempts this replaces.

Price & position

Candles colored by direction. The strip beneath shows actual position exposure each candle — long / short / flat. Markers: ▲ fresh entry, ● DCA add, ✕ exit (take-profit or trailing stop).

Leverage

The DCA ratchet: starts at the exchange floor on every fresh entry, climbs only on confirmed favorable moves, drops to zero on exit.

Equity

Account equity across the same run. Dashed line marks starting equity.