BTC Daily · Forward validation · Same genome, two leverage regimes
The saved discovery-trainer v2 champion, replayed twice over the identical 106-candle window: the frozen 90-candle holdout it was validated on, plus the 16 genuinely fresh Daily candles that did not exist when it was trained. Red run: the original magnitude-only safety cap. Blue run: the same genome with the new hard tail cap () derived from the training pool's own 99th-percentile real adverse candle excursion. Everything on this page is replayed live from the saved genome — never hand-entered.
Real Daily candles. The two exposure strips beneath show each run's actual position per candle (top: uncapped, bottom: tail-capped). The ✕ marks the uncapped run's liquidation candle — the first fresh candle after its 73x short.
Position leverage per candle for both runs. The dashed line is the hard tail cap; the uncapped run's spike to 73.4x on the second-to-last holdout candle is the position the fresh window liquidated.
Account equity across the same window (dashed: starting equity). The uncapped run's cliff is the liquidation; its line then stays flat because the episode is over.
Each seed retrains the router from scratch with the tail-capped v2 member and the same guard rail, then replays on the same holdout / fresh windows as above. Every seed finds the same equilibrium; zero liquidations anywhere.