BTC · forward paper proving · hourly · started 2026-08-27 22:23 UTC
Carry + Halving — Paper Proving
The doubling-path strategy proving itself forward in real time: the validated halving calendar
direction (currently LONG phase, flips in 0 days
on 2026-09-26) at 1x, with real Apex funding applied at every 8h settlement. Two ledgers: always-on calendar vs
carry-timed (short side stands flat after a negative funding window). Pre-registered before the first tick;
nothing tuned after.
0.7509x
Carry-timed ledger
0.9198x
Funding-fade satellite
0.9995x
Buy & hold (same span)
+0.12bp
Last funding (hourly on Apex)
Calendar
Carry-timed
Funding-fade satellite (added hour 3, from 1.0)
Buy & hold
Pre-registered go-live criteria (no live keys before ALL hold):
(1) ≥14 days of clean paper record; (2) carry-timed ≥ calendar or within noise; (3) max drawdown <10% at 1x;
(4) the 2026-09-26 phase flip handled correctly on paper. The live path reuses the existing five-gate runner
(LIVE_TRADING_ENABLED, kill switch, testnet-first, mainnet double-confirm, credential presence) — keys go in
.env only after these criteria are met. Honest basis: the calendar rule is n=3 completed cycles; carry timing is
measured income, not prediction; Kelly says ~1.5x optimal but proving runs at 1x.