BTC cycle research - public SEO chart
Bitcoin Cycle Top and Bottom Model
A lightweight visual record of the viral Bitcoin cycle timing model: roughly 1,064 days of expansion from a macro bottom into a cycle top, followed by roughly 364 days of drawdown into the next macro bottom.
This page is intentionally lighter than the full daily-candle replay. It is built for public research, search indexing, fast loading, and direct comparison of historical cycle dates against the rolling forward model.
Cycle timeline - actual history and model projection
Operational note: the current Trade Bot Secrets switch date remains 2026-09-26. On that date the calendar model flips from the current tactical short window back to long unless a later risk rule explicitly overrides it.
Historical Alignment
The table compares recognized Bitcoin macro dates with the simple timing model. The model is useful because it produces exact dates before price confirms them, but the historical record should still be read as a timing framework rather than a guarantee.
| Cycle | Actual bottom | Actual / model top | Actual / model bottom | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 to 2018 | 2015-01-15 actual | 2017-12-17 actual 2017-12-14 model |
2018-12-16 actual 2018-12-13 model |
Top 3 days late; bottom 3 days late versus 1,064/364 from the bottom anchor. |
| 2018 to 2022 | 2018-12-16 actual | 2021-11-09 actual 2021-11-14 model |
2022-11-22 actual 2022-11-13 model |
Top 5 days early; bottom 9 days late versus the bottom-anchor model. |
| 2022 to 2026 | 2022-11-22 actual | 2025-09-28 registered 2025-10-21 bottom-anchor model |
2026-09-26 registered 2026-10-20 bottom-anchor model |
The live system uses the registered halving-cycle switch dates, with the long flip on 2026-09-26. |
| 2026 to 2030 | 2026-09-26 registered | 2029-08-25 model | 2030-08-24 model | First full forward projection from the next switch date. |
| 2030 to 2034 | 2030-08-24 projected | 2033-07-23 model | 2034-07-22 model | Second full forward projection. |
How To Use This Page
For trading operations, the important output is the direction switch date. A projected bottom is the date where this timing model expects the drawdown block to end and the next long regime to begin. It is not a promise that price will print the exact intraday low on that date.
For research, the important output is drift: whether future cycle tops and bottoms continue landing near the model dates, or whether the cycle length breaks materially. That is why the page records both actual dates and model dates instead of hiding the misses.